Nga Henrik B\u00f6hme <\/p>\n
Ishte pak para fillimit t\u00eb mij\u00ebvje\u00e7arit, kur revista britanike e biznesit The Economist erdhi n\u00eb nj\u00eb konstatim shkat\u00ebrrues p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb gjermane. \u201cGjermania \u00ebsht\u00eb The sick man oft the Europe \u2013 njeriu i s\u00ebmur\u00eb i Evrop\u00ebs. Asokohe ting\u00ebllonte si nj\u00eb thirrje zgjimi nga gjumi edhe p\u00ebr politikan\u00ebt gjerman\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt, ende t\u00eb dehur nga vitet ekonomikisht t\u00eb forta pas ribashkimit, kishin refuzuar \u00e7do reform\u00eb. K\u00ebto reforma u kompensuan nga qeveria e kancelarit t\u00eb at\u00ebhersh\u00ebm Gerhard Schr\u00f6der (SPD), p\u00ebr shembull, me reform\u00ebn e tregut t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, t\u00eb njohur si Hartz IV.<\/p>\n
Gjendja ndryshoi p\u00ebr t\u00eb mir\u00eb dhe kjo zgjati 14 vjet. Nj\u00eb grup ekonomist\u00ebsh nga Berlini dhe Londra shkruajt\u00ebn nj\u00eb ese p\u00ebr Gjertmanin\u00eb me titull: Nga njeriu i s\u00ebmur\u00eb i Evrop\u00ebs n\u00eb nj\u00eb superstar ekonomik.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsimi i gjendjes dhe parashikimet e k\u00ebqija<\/p>\n
Por tani s\u00ebrish po b\u00ebn xhiron shprehja e at\u00ebhershme \u201ci s\u00ebmuri i Evrop\u00ebs\u201d. Ekonomia gjermane nuk po arrin t\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbet nga kriza e fundit. Prodhimi ekonomik ka sh\u00ebnuar ngecje n\u00eb gjasht\u00eb muajt e par\u00eb, q\u00eb ekonomist\u00ebt e quajn\u00eb \u201crecesion teknik\u201d. N\u00eb tremujorin e fundit, produkti i brendsh\u00ebm bruto ngeci n\u00eb nivelin e tremujorit t\u00eb m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm. Nd\u00ebrsa t\u00eb gjith\u00eb treguesit e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm \u00e7ojn\u00eb n\u00eb konstatimin se ekonomia gjermane do t\u00eb sh\u00ebnoj\u00eb r\u00ebnie gjat\u00eb k\u00ebtij vitit. K\u00ebt\u00eb tregon edhe indeksi i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm i klim\u00ebs s\u00eb biznesit i Institutit nga Mynihu Ifo. N\u00eb korrik u publikuan t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e anket\u00ebs me 9.000 menaxher\u00eb t\u00eb kompanive gjermane ku thuhet se \u201csituata n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb gjermane po err\u00ebsohet\u201d dhe se do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie gjat\u00eb vitit prej 0,3%.<\/p>\n
Studiuesit e Ifo nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb vetmit q\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb sigurt se produkti i brendsh\u00ebm bruto ndoshta do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb tremujorin e tret\u00eb. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb edhe p\u00ebr kryeekonomistin e Commerzbank, J\u00f6rg Kramer: \u201cP\u00ebr fat t\u00eb keq, nuk ka p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim n\u00eb horizont,\u201d i tha Kramer agjencis\u00eb s\u00eb lajmeve Reuters. \u201cRritjet globale t\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit po influencojn\u00eb gjendjen, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht pasi kompanit\u00eb gjermane kan\u00eb probleme me vendndodhjen e tyre.\u201d Kolegu i Kr\u00e4mer, Alexander Kr\u00fcger nga Hauck Aufh\u00e4user Lampe Privatbank e sheh gjendjen ngjash\u00ebm: \u201cProblemi \u00ebsht\u00eb se prodhimi ekonomik \u00ebsht\u00eb ende vet\u00ebm n\u00eb nivelin para koron\u00ebs.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cGjermania frenohet edhe nga ciklet ekonomike evropiane,\u201d thot\u00eb Jens-Oliver Niklasch nga Landesbank Baden-W\u00fcrttemberg (LBBW).<\/p>\n
Industria dhe problemet e saj<\/p>\n
Gjermania aktualisht \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb keq n\u00eb krahasim me vendet e tjera t\u00eb industrializuara. Sipas vler\u00ebsimeve t\u00eb Fondit Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar (FMN) k\u00ebt\u00eb vit Gjermania do t\u00eb jet\u00eb vendi i vet\u00ebm nga vendet e m\u00ebdha q\u00eb do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb tkurrje ekonomike. Ajo q\u00eb shqet\u00ebson m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti \u00ebsht\u00eb industria, e cila me rreth 24 p\u00ebr qind, p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb gjermane. Mungesa e porosive nga vendet e tjera \u00ebsht\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht e dukshme n\u00eb sektor\u00ebt q\u00eb varen shum\u00eb nga eksportet, si inxhinieria mekanike dhe industria e automjeteve. Tregu i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm kinezpas pandemis\u00eb s\u00eb koron\u00ebs nuk po rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbet me vrullin e shpresuar.<\/p>\n
Kompanit\u00eb ende jan\u00eb duke punuar mir\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb porosive t\u00eb m\u00ebparshme, por duket se edhe k\u00ebto porosi do t\u00eb p\u00ebrpunohen s\u00eb shpejti. Nd\u00ebrsa porosi t\u00eb tjera nuk ka shum\u00eb \u2013 nga marsi deri n\u00eb maj, p\u00ebr shembull, ka pasur rreth gjasht\u00eb p\u00ebr qind m\u00eb pak porosi sesa n\u00eb tre muajt e m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb gam\u00eb e t\u00ebr\u00eb shkaqesh<\/p>\n
R\u00ebnia e ekonomis\u00eb gjermane ka shum\u00eb shkaqe. Nj\u00eb prej tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb politika monetare e bankave qendrore. Mbik\u00ebqyr\u00ebsit monetar\u00eb duan t\u00eb frenojn\u00eb inflacionin me rritje t\u00eb konsiderueshme t\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit. Kjo i b\u00ebn kredit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjta p\u00ebr kompanit\u00eb dhe konsumator\u00ebt, q\u00eb pengon dhe ngadal\u00ebson industrin\u00eb e nd\u00ebrtimit, e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb po ashtu shum\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr Gjermanin\u00eb, e kjo ngadal\u00ebson edhe vullnetin e kompanive p\u00ebr t\u00eb investuar.<\/p>\n
Edhe vendet e tjera si Franca dhe Spanja kan\u00eb probleme me kredit\u00eb, por ato aktualisht jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb. \u201cT\u00eb gjith\u00eb fqinj\u00ebt tan\u00eb evropian\u00eb kan\u00eb nj\u00eb dinamik\u00eb t\u00eb zhvillimit m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb ekonomik,\u201d konfirmon Moritz Schularick, Presidenti i ri i Instituti i Kielit p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkime Ekonomike Ekonomia Bot\u00ebrore (IfW).<\/p>\n
Gjermanin\u00eb e ngadal\u00ebsojn\u00eb edhe disa probleme strukturore. Modeli dikur i suksessh\u00ebm i biznesit (importimi i energjis\u00eb s\u00eb lir\u00eb \u2013 ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht ruse \u2013 por edhe i l\u00ebnd\u00ebve t\u00eb para) nuk funksionon m\u00eb. Krizat e shumta t\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit (korona, problemet n\u00eb furnizimin me l\u00ebnd\u00eb t\u00eb para dhe me produkte, lufta e Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb\u2026) kan\u00eb nxjerr\u00eb pam\u00ebshirsh\u00ebm n\u00eb sip\u00ebrfaqe dob\u00ebsit\u00eb e ekonomis\u00eb gjermane. Lista e v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsive vazhdon: Kompanit\u00eb po vuajn\u00eb nga kostot e larta t\u00eb energjis\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa ato q\u00eb kan\u00eb zhvendosur prodhimin n\u00eb vende t\u00eb tjera nuk po kthehen.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebrkohen zgjidhje t\u00eb guximshme<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb studim aktual nga DZ Bank i sheh kompanit\u00eb e mesme \u2013 t\u00eb quajtura zakonisht si \u201cshtylla kurrizore e ekonomis\u00eb gjermane\u201d \u2013 si ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht t\u00eb rrezikuara. Autor\u00ebt v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dukje nj\u00eb koktej t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb t\u00eb disavantazheve t\u00eb vendndodhjes: p\u00ebrve\u00e7 \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb, p\u00ebrmendet mungesa e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve t\u00eb kualifikuar, por edhe burokracia e tep\u00ebrt, taksat e larta dhe nj\u00eb infrastruktur\u00eb e dob\u00ebt e digjitalizimit. P\u00ebrve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, Gjermania ka nj\u00eb popullsi t\u00eb plakur. \u201cPjes\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb son\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb besim se investimet do t\u00eb shp\u00ebrblehen p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb kostove t\u00eb larta, si dhe rregulloreve ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb kontradiktore,\u201d tha s\u00eb fundmi Peter Adrian, President i Dhom\u00ebs Gjermane t\u00eb Industris\u00eb dhe Tregtis\u00eb p\u00ebr Agjencin\u00eb Gjermane t\u00eb Shtypit.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa Schularik shkruan n\u00eb nj\u00eb artikull n\u00eb faqen e internetit t\u00eb institutit t\u00eb tij: \u201cN\u00ebse Gjermania nuk d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb b\u00ebhet p\u00ebrs\u00ebri \u201ci s\u00ebmuri i Evrop\u00ebs\u201d, ajo duhet t\u00eb investoj\u00eb me guxim n\u00eb sektor\u00ebt q\u00eb mund t\u00eb rriten nes\u00ebr e jo t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqet q\u00eb me miliarda euro t\u00eb ruaj\u00eb industrit\u00eb e djeshme.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sipas Schularick, kjo n\u00ebnkupton edhe eliminimin e shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb deficiteve t\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb kaluar dhe eliminimin e tyre. M\u00eb s\u00eb shumti duhet punuar n\u00eb: \u201cEliminimin e prapambetjes n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha fushat digjitale, n\u00eb krijimin e kapaciteteve shtet\u00ebrore dhe infrastruktur\u00ebs publike, nd\u00ebrtimin e banesave t\u00eb domosdoshme dhe shtimin e numrit t\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve t\u00eb huaj p\u00ebr t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtuar ndikimin n\u00eb ekonomi t\u00eb plakjes s\u00eb fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebrtore\u201d.\/DW<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nga Henrik B\u00f6hme Ishte pak para fillimit t\u00eb mij\u00ebvje\u00e7arit, kur revista britanike e biznesit The Economist erdhi n\u00eb nj\u00eb konstatim shkat\u00ebrrues p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb gjermane. \u201cGjermania<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":18623,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinione"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18622"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18622\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}