Politologia Erica Frantz, profesoresh\u00eb e asociuar n\u00eb Universitetin Shtet\u00ebror t\u00eb Mi\u00e7iganit, SHBA, po i studion regjimet autoritare p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 15 vjet, dhe ka shkruar shum\u00eb libra mbi k\u00ebt\u00eb tem\u00eb. Ajo dhe bashkautor\u00ebt e librave saj, kan\u00eb krijuar nj\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnash me rreth 300 regjime autoritare q\u00eb kan\u00eb ekzistuar n\u00eb mbar\u00eb globin q\u00eb nga viti 1946.<\/p>\n
Duke p\u00ebrdorur k\u00ebto t\u00eb dh\u00ebna, studiuesit kan\u00eb analizuar n\u00eb detaje se si dhe pse autokracit\u00eb e ndryshme jan\u00eb rr\u00ebzuar, sa shpesh udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit e tyre kan\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb nga pushteti pas fillimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebrave, dhe \u00e7far\u00eb ka ndodhur me vendet e tyre pas vdekjes s\u00eb tyre. N\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb p\u00ebr \u201cMeduza\u201d, Frantz thot\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb parashikon k\u00ebrkimi i saj parashikon p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen e Rusis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Sa mund t\u00eb na tregojn\u00eb autokracit\u00eb e s\u00eb kaluar\u00ebs p\u00ebr ato aktuale?<\/p>\n
N\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi, ekzistojn\u00eb disa tipare themelore t\u00eb diktaturave, p\u00ebrmes s\u00eb cilave mund t\u00eb kuptohen ato. Un\u00eb prirem t\u00eb analizoj 2 struktura kryesore:partin\u00eb n\u00eb pushtet dhe rolin e forcave t\u00eb siguris\u00eb. A \u00ebsht\u00eb aparati i siguris\u00eb n\u00eb frenat e qeveris\u00eb, i pavarur nga lideri, apo plot\u00ebsisht n\u00eb dispozicion t\u00eb tij? K\u00ebta dy faktor\u00eb priren t\u00eb \u00e7ojn\u00eb n\u00eb shum\u00eb rezultate t\u00eb ndryshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat mund t\u00eb na interesojn\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Pse mbajn\u00eb zgjedhje autokrat\u00ebt e sot\u00ebm?<\/p>\n
Arsyeja e par\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb ka nj\u00eb presion nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar. Konsensusi midis qytetar\u00ebve t\u00eb zakonsh\u00ebm dhe midis aktor\u00ebve kryesor\u00eb politik\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb se demokracia \u00ebsht\u00eb forma m\u00eb e mir\u00eb e qeverisjes. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr n\u00ebse ata mbajn\u00eb zgjedhje p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb ndihma nga jasht\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Regjimet autoritare jan\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb afta n\u00eb shitjen e zgjedhjeve t\u00eb tyre si konkurruese edhe kur ato nuk jan\u00eb. Dhe kjo jep nj\u00eb mesazh legjitimiteti p\u00ebr regjimin:se k\u00ebto grupime kan\u00eb n\u00eb fakt mb\u00ebshtetjen e popullit. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i madh studimesh tregojn\u00eb se diktaturat q\u00eb mbajn\u00eb rregullisht zgjedhje dhe lejojn\u00eb shum\u00eb parti t\u00eb konkurrojn\u00eb, jan\u00eb m\u00eb jet\u00ebgjata.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb mendoni se i detyron udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit autokrat\u00eb t\u00eb humbasin pushtetin e tyre? Bazuar n\u00eb pun\u00ebn tuaj, vlen t\u00eb theksohet se fundi i mbret\u00ebrimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb lideri nuk paraqet gjithmon\u00eb fundin e nj\u00eb regjimi\u2026<\/p>\n
Po, ne e dim\u00eb q\u00eb mbijetesa e liderit dhe mbijetesa e regjimit nuk jan\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebrisht e nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb. N\u00eb periudh\u00ebn e pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, n\u00eb rreth gjysm\u00ebn e rasteve kur lider\u00ebt kan\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb nga pushteti, ata thjesht jan\u00eb pasuar nga nj\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebs dhe regjimi i tyre vazhdon.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb gjysm\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb rasteve, kur lideri bie nga pushteti, regjimi bie bashk\u00eb me t\u00eb. N\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi, regjimet ushtarake, t\u00eb cilat ishin shum\u00eb t\u00eb zakonshme gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb, jan\u00eb sot m\u00eb pak t\u00eb zakonshme. Ato prireshin t\u00eb ishin m\u00eb jet\u00ebshkurtrat nga t\u00eb gjitha diktaturat, por ka shum\u00eb t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb rr\u00ebzohen p\u00ebrmes negociatave.<\/p>\n
Dhe ky negocim krijon nj\u00eb mjedis q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb i mir\u00eb p\u00ebr demokracin\u00eb. Pra, midis gjith\u00eb k\u00ebtyre diktaturave, diktaturat ushtarake jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb mundshmet p\u00ebr t\u2019u demokratizuar. Dhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb ka shum\u00eb shembuj nga Amerika Latine.<\/p>\n
Pse lider\u00ebt e autokracive personaliste jan\u00eb kapur kaq fort pas pushtetit? A vjen kjo p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb rreziqeve me t\u00eb cilat mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen n\u00ebse e humbin at\u00eb?<\/p>\n
Po. P\u00ebr shkak se kan\u00eb krijuar shum\u00eb armiq kur qeverisin dhe spastrojn\u00eb rival\u00ebt, ata kan\u00eb shum\u00eb frik\u00eb se mund t\u00eb internohen ose burgosen apo vriten kur t\u00eb largohen nga pushteti.<\/p>\n
Dhe k\u00ebt\u00eb e v\u00ebrtetojn\u00eb edhe t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat historike.<\/p>\n
Ne kemi m\u00eb shum\u00eb gjasa t\u00eb shohim dhun\u00eb, kur k\u00ebta lider\u00eb dhe regjimet e tyre t\u00eb largohen nga pushteti. Dhe kjo lloj dhune, qoft\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet nj\u00eb revolte, nj\u00eb pushtimi t\u00eb huaj, apo nj\u00eb lufte civile, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb terren i mir\u00eb p\u00ebr demokraci.<\/p>\n
Shum\u00eb lexues rus\u00eb po mendojn\u00eb ndoshta p\u00ebr vdekjen e Stalinit. Regjimi sovjetik vazhdoi edhe pasi tij, por ndryshoi ndjesh\u00ebm, duke u zbutur. A \u00e7on zakonisht n\u00eb liberalizim vdekja e nj\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsi autoritar? Apo mund t\u00eb kemi shtypje t\u00eb m\u00ebtejshme?<\/p>\n
Mjerisht jan\u00eb t\u00eb mundura q\u00eb t\u00eb dyja. Kur vdiq Stalini, gj\u00ebrat n\u00eb Bashkimin Sovjetik u p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuan disi n\u00eb aspektin e zbutjes s\u00eb represionit. Por ka edhe situata si n\u00eb Koren\u00eb e Veriut ku q\u00eb prej vdekjes s\u00eb babait t\u00eb tij, Kim Jong Un ka kryer v\u00ebrtet shum\u00eb spastrime.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi, n\u00eb diktaturat personaliste, pasardh\u00ebsit duket se kan\u00eb pak m\u00eb shum\u00eb sfida p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrcjell\u00eb legjitimitetin e tyre, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb munges\u00ebs s\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyre m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb p\u00ebr ta komunikuar at\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Pra, k\u00ebta udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs besojn\u00eb se rreziqet e lidhura me zhvillimin e nj\u00eb lufte dhe mund\u00ebsia e humbjes jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta se sa rreziqet q\u00eb ajo t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb keq?<\/p>\n
Po, dhe madje e p\u00ebrdorin luft\u00ebn si nj\u00eb bast p\u00ebr ri-ngritje. N\u00eb fillim, studiuesit mendonin se t\u00eb gjith\u00eb lider\u00ebt, madje edhe ata demokrat\u00eb, kishin m\u00eb shum\u00eb gjasa t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqeshin ta p\u00ebrdornin luft\u00ebn si nj\u00eb taktik\u00eb diversioni. N\u00eb fakt vet\u00ebm ky n\u00ebngrup lider\u00ebsh, mendojn\u00eb se gj\u00ebrat do t\u00eb jen\u00eb v\u00ebrtet keq p\u00ebr ta n\u00ebse nuk b\u00ebjn\u00eb di\u00e7ka.<\/p>\n
Prandaj ata rrezikojn\u00eb dhe nisin nj\u00eb luft\u00eb, si\u00e7 po b\u00ebn Vladimir Putini. Ka nj\u00eb studim q\u00eb tregon se kur udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb (dhe jo vet\u00ebm ata autokrat\u00eb), bie rreziku p\u00ebr t\u2019u rr\u00ebzuar nga nj\u00eb grusht shteti. Pra ai mund t\u00eb funksionoj\u00eb dhe t\u00eb ndihmoj\u00eb n\u00eb mbrojtjen e lider\u00ebve.<\/p>\n
Midis ekspert\u00ebve dhe analist\u00ebve, ekziston nj\u00eb ide mjaft e p\u00ebrhapur se Putini do ta zhvilloj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb luft\u00eb p\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb gjall\u00eb, pasi ai e sheh at\u00eb si mjetin e tij t\u00eb vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb q\u00ebndruar n\u00eb pushtet. \u00c7far\u00eb mendoni p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb?<\/p>\n
Jam dakord. Por nuk mendoj se ka qen\u00eb ky q\u00ebllimi n\u00eb fillim. Ka shum\u00eb prova q\u00eb ai \u00ebsht\u00eb befasuar nga v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsit\u00eb q\u00eb ka hasur. Ai mendoi se do t\u00eb hynte n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, do t\u00eb arrinte q\u00ebllimet e tij dhe m\u00eb pas do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundonte operacionin.<\/p>\n
Por reagimi i ukrainasve e befasoi. Tani q\u00eb gj\u00ebrat po zvarriten, ai e ka lidhur aq shum\u00eb trash\u00ebgimin\u00eb e tij me k\u00ebt\u00eb luft\u00eb dhe rezultatin e saj, saq\u00eb duhet ta vazhdoj\u00eb n\u00ebse do t\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb ket\u00eb ndonj\u00eb t\u00eb ardhme politike. Ose i duhet nj\u00eb fitore vendimtare, e cila as q\u00eb po duket n\u00eb horizont.<\/p>\n
Margarita Lyutova \u201cMeduza\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Politologia Erica Frantz, profesoresh\u00eb e asociuar n\u00eb Universitetin Shtet\u00ebror t\u00eb Mi\u00e7iganit, SHBA, po i studion regjimet autoritare p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 15 vjet, dhe ka<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-indeks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6604"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6604\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indeks.bilten.mk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}